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The gauge is weighted toward items such as housing and insurance, and Fed officials are hoping that shelter costs decrease through the year, taking some pressure off the cost of living gauges. Gas prices fell on a seasonally adjusted basis while grocery prices are also expected to have moderated, as evidenced by several major retailers announcing promotions or price cuts, keeping a lid on grocery bills, economists at Wells Fargo Securities wrote in an analysis. What is the expected CPI, as we approach the release of the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the implications for monetary policy are becoming increasingly significant.Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the U.S. This crucial data will provide insights into inflation trends and could significantly influence market sentiment moving forward. And with some upside risks to inflation, I still see the need to pay close attention to the price-stability side of our mandate while watching for risks of a material weakening in the labor market,” Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman told the Kansas Bankers Association on Saturday. Another benign inflation report “makes the Fed completely comfortable that they can shift their focus away from inflation and toward labor,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income.
Forecasters are anticipating January’s report to more than wipe out an unwelcome inflation uptick in December.This and other inflation reports over the next few months could be key in determining how soon, and how quickly, the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate. Falling energy prices and a slowdown in food price increases could reduce the overall inflation rate, economists at RBC said in a commentary. The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee has said they’re looking for economic data—especially inflation reports—to show that consumer prices are firmly on the path down to a 2% annual rate before they’ll cut interest rates. The central bank has maintained its key fed funds rate at a 23-year high since last July, pushing up borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans, in hopes of slowing the economy and stifling inflation.
Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of September 2023
Therefore, it is closely watched by investors and members of the Federal Reserve (Fed). The difference between the January headline CPI and the core CPI was driven primarily by higher energy and food prices. Rising gasoline prices likely put a floor under inflation in February, potentially reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to take a go-slow approach with interest rate reductions. Much of the expected decline in inflation is due to prices for several key items in household budgets staying flat or even falling.
Other statistics that may interest you Consumer Price Index and Inflation
Markets were rattled in January when the CPI data came in higher than expected, and Fed officials shifted their rhetoric afterward to a more cautious tone about easing policy. Recent economic data, including strong job numbers, has already fueled inflation concerns, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.80%, its highest level since November 2023. Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
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The April figure is 79% higher than the same month a year earlier, when the price averaged $2.86 per dozen. The average price for a dozen Grade A eggs dropped 12.7% to $5.12 in April, marking the first month-to-month decline in egg prices since October 2024. Egg prices sank 12.7% for the month, reflecting declines seen on the wholesale side as the industry starts to recover from a deadly bout of avian flu. The average price of a dozen Grade A eggs fell from $6.23 to $5.12, BLS data shows. The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) print from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that inflation cooled further in April.
Projected Consumer Price Index in the United States from 2010 to 2029
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- Although, markets do expect the FOMC to cut interest rates moderately later this year.
- Fed officials have kept the rate at a 23-year high since last July in an effort to discourage borrowing and spending and push down inflation from the four-decade high it hit in 2022.
- While increases in gas prices can play an outsize role in monthly fluctuations for the survey, the outlook for gas price increases was actually relatively benign.
That said, XAIU/USD remains on the defensive as market focus shifts to the FOMC Minutes amid continuous uncertainty on the US trade front and rising geopolitical worries. If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet. With the increase in CPI, real average hourly earnings were flat for the month and up 1.4% from a year ago. “The July CPI report is likely to further the case that inflation is quieting down even if it has not yet returned to the Fed’s target,” Wells Fargo economists said.
A large component of that rise was driven by a 15.2% MoM increase in egg prices. This marked the largest jump since 2015, in part due to the ongoing Avian flu. “The latest data do show that we’ve had considerable cooling in the labor market,” Powell said. “We’re very much aware that we have two-sided risks now. …We’re determined to balance those as best we can.” Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers in both chambers this week that the Fed is increasingly aware of the risks the fight against inflation poses to the labor market.
(Bloomberg) — A gauge of Australia’s monthly inflation came in slightly faster than expected in April, coinciding with a period of tariff turmoil that roiled markets and encouraged the Reserve Bank to lower interest rates last week. The consensus forecast among economists is for the CPI, a measure of the cost of living, to have risen 3.5% since last March, an acceleration from the 3.2% annual inflation rate in February, according to a survey of economists polled by the Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal. “If they don’t at the September meeting, the market is not going to take kindly to that.” Housing costs were a major driver of inflation last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. And energy costs also ticked higher, despite lower gasoline prices, due to increases in natural gas and electricity costs. Prices for goods excluding food, energy and autos rose 0.2%, exceeding the past 12 months’ zero average, he wrote in a note to investors.
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Barclays economists expect April CPI to be up 0.3% month over month and 2.3% year over year. Either way, the FOMC was quick to cut rates in late 2024 but appears likely to keep the federal funds rate unchanged when it next meets in June. The Fed relies more on the Commerce Department’s inflation gauge for policymaking, though the CPI figures into that index. how to research a stock with pictures The BLS on Thursday will release its April reading on producer prices, which is seen as more of a leading indicator on inflation. Since the China developments, the market has pushed out the first cut to September, with just two likely this year as the central bank feels less pressure to support the economy and as inflation has held above the Fed’s 2% target now for more than four years.
Additionally, the release of wholesale inflation data (PPI) on August 11 will be informative. The next CPI report is giving traders and investors even more agita than usual. Fears are running high that a hot January inflation print will force the Federal Reserve to send interest rates ever higher and keep them there for longer. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI rose 0.2%, lighter than the 0.3% pace forecast by economists. “The very low level on searches of Google for phrases including ‘flights’ in April … suggests that booking and prices will remain subdued in May,” he wrote.
What does the CPI report mean for your money
So, reducing inflation, especially core inflation, further in the second half of 2023 may be slower going. It accounts for why they plan to maintain interest rates at relatively high levels into 2024. “I’m as curious about Wednesday’s inflation report as anyone else, but I think it would take a real outlier to change the Fed’s tune from 1) shifting to labor as its focus, and 2) seriously thinking about cutting in September,” Porcelli said. “They should start off aggressively. I can easily make the argument for the Fed to cut 50 basis points just to kick things off because I think they should have been cutting already. I don’t think that’s what they will do. They’ll start it off modestly.”
- The Consumer Price Index indicator stayed at 2.4%, compared with economists’ estimate of 2.3%, data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.
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- US inflation slowed to its lowest rate in more than four years, an unexpected and welcome development at a time when President Donald Trump’s dramatically escalated tariffs are expected to cause prices to rise.
- Economists anticipate that tariffs likely will make a bigger splash on physical and virtual store shelves in May and June.
However, a few key core prices, including for used cars, may have increased notably, Ian Shepherdson chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, predicted in a commentary, based on data from JD Power. Economists view core inflation as a more reliable indicator of the trajectory of inflation because prices for food and gas often go up and down for reasons that have nothing to do with broader inflation trends. However, that likely won’t be true for much longer, as merchants begin to pass on the cost of the new import taxes to consumers, Goldman forecasted. Economists expect the headline CPI to increase by 2.9% year-over-year, while core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 3.3%. A strong CPI reading could prompt investors to push back expectations for interest rate cuts into 2026, indicating ongoing inflation risks that the Federal Reserve will need to address.
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